2021 – Something Big is Still Afoot. Are You Prepared?
Capitalism and Credibility:
Happy New Year. Normally, I see a New Year as a clean slate but this one is quite messy. We are living in an historic time and while my seat may be in the cheap section, I am inside the theatre. A favorite Yogi Berra quote is “It is not over until the fat lady sings” and even with my hearing aids I do not hear her warming up.
Last March I wrote in this blog that because of capitalism the pandemic would create a lot of new companies and jobs producing new products to address the Wuhan Virus. Over the holiday I did some research about Ultraviolet Light (UV) products for HVAC systems. Wow! I was expecting a few but there are so many I have not yet finished going through the alternatives. There are multiple free standing portable units, handheld units, light fixtures, and units that attach to your HVAC system. I love capitalism!
The next new products to watch for will be news media that provide unbiased coverage and facts. Until 2019 when Disney acquired it, FOX NEWS had a market share of at least 50%. Being a global company heavily indebted to China, Disney changed management which altered their target market leaving the conservative segment they controlled to focus on the liberal market segment already divided among CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, etc. who are the equivalent to Pravda. That provides a new definition of the word “Stupid”.
Fox News viewership has plummeted below the previous laggard CNN (no one watches CNN) thus destroying a lot of market value. Giving up a lock on market share for political reasons is a classic bad decision. I expect the Disney stock to correct down. If the USA remains a capitalistic country, I look forward to the new media companies that will evolve. OAN and Newsmax have the lead but others are coming.
Thinking about this evolution in the media made me realize that in my 48+ years of brokerage and the effort to obtain an MBA, I have never seen a formula to determine the value of “Credibility”. Credibility is extremely fragile. Once destroyed it can never be fully regained. Credibility has a huge influence on our decisions. Perhaps it is priceless. Yes, it is priceless.
That makes the apparent decisions of the Democratic Party quite interesting. We have all laughed at “Republicans that die in Chicago begin to vote Democratic”. Perhaps the fraud went high tech a decade ago. That would explain why Hillary felt she won, because the fix was in but not sufficient to overcome Trump. Did something similar happen in 2018 when the Republicans retained the Senate disrupting the “Impeach Trump” movement resulting in the “Impeachment for Giggles”?
The data suggests that in 2020 Trump got more votes than the Democrats expected hence the panic and resulting blatant vote fraud the evening of November 3 and morning of November 4. No one can deny an amazing amount of fraud occurred – there are videos and thousands of signed and notarized affidavits.
It does appear the Democratic Party combined the Dominion Voting Systems with printed fraudulent “mail in” ballots (printed in Chinese and in Michigan). The “Swing States” were the most obvious but every state using Dominion Machines has good reason to question the accuracy and honesty of the election, including Virginia. In the process the Democrat Party has clearly defined their use of the derogatory words “Clingers”, ‘Deplorables”, and “Chumps” to describe their attitude for the average American Joe and Jane who live in “Jesus Land”.
Contemplation of the fact that “Actions speak louder than words” leads me to the following questions:
- Is the Democratic Party’s vision for the USA a country controlled by Global Elites of a few politicians and our largest international companies (Face Book, Disney, Wall Street banks, the largest media companies, etc.) in effect an Oligarchy such as exists in Russia and China?
- Clearly Biden has become wealthy on a government salary. Since Harris is reported to have some financial interests in some of the same Chinese ventures, along with many other politicians, just how compromised are they?
- How do the Marxist Democrats fit into that equation? It appears the Marxist street turmoil was successful in intimidating judges and police departments to not doing their jobs regarding the ballot fraud. Never have I seen so much evidence with no action like a Sargent Shultz of “Hogan’s Heroes” denial… “I know (see) noth-ink”.
- The Democrat Party is used to the conservative Christians turning the other cheek thus allowing the Democrats to walk all over them. This time the fraud is so blatant (in my travels that is the word repeatedly being used), will that happen again? NO because this was a Tipping Point. Did you see the huge cross erected at the Capitol and hear that the protestors stormed the capitol on January 6? Pay attention to BOTH events.
- Read last week’s blog about the trends over the last 30 years. Since none of these are positive for the USA economy, how much damage will be done?
Clearly a Biden Harris Administration would be a Clinger Deplorable Chump vs the Global Elites contest. My personal analysis – if there is a Biden-Harris Administration it is going to be a really ugly experience and any remaining Democrat Credibility will be destroyed never to be regained. History may judge this election as a “Won the battle but lost the war” event.
Now add into our discussion the fact that all investment markets in the USA economy are a massive bubble. Trump’s obvious plan of rapid economic growth to increase the GDP and thereby increase the tax receipts to service the national debt without raising the tax rates is the only positive choice. The campaign platform of Biden which includes increased tax rates and government regulations plus continued massive increases in our national debt from unproductive government spending all of which are a prescription for economic disaster. Think Venezuela.
Do not forget that this April we will be able to quantify the economic impact of the Wuhan Virus shutdown as foreclosures and bankruptcies begin to hit the real estate and financial markets. I believe the USA economy will stagger but not fall. However, the HIGHEST probability under a Biden Harris Administration is that all of the bubbles burst at once probably in 2022. The Fed is already doing 50% more QE than they did in The Great Recession and interest rates are already too low. That means there is no calvary to send to rescue the Clingers, Deplorables, Chumps that are the bedrock American consumer. Any recession will have to burn itself out. A Depression?
In business conversations I continue to hear fear on the part of some businessmen and caution on the part of some buyers. Those are also reflected in the global movement of capital which always seeks the best combination of financial return and safety. Currently global capital is leaving the USA resulting in the yield of the 10-year Treasury approaching 1%. The U. S. Dollar continues to fall against most currencies. When global currency traders figure out that the Chinese Yuan is Fool’s Gold, that will be another crisis but currently China is benefiting from capital fleeing the USA.
My greatest concern – the Wuhan Virus panic, the street violence, and the fraudulent election combined with politicians and judges being compromised is the historic Marxist formula for taking over a country. Marxism is the greatest risk because it is reversed only with bullets.
The Current land market – commercial land is in flux and industrial land would soften under Biden since there will be little re-shoring of our industries back to the USA as folks like Hunter Biden profit from selling our remaining industries to China. Residential land is a bubble, and rural land is price sensitive. The amount of cash sitting on the sidelines is at a record $5.9 Trillion because in an insured bank account the principle is preserved. It as a “Reflection of Fear.” Increased fear is a negative for economic growth.
Fortunately, God is in control. Men may make plans, but God always wins.
“Therefore, since we are justified by faith, we have peace with God through our Lord Jesus Christ.”
(Romans 5:1 New Revised Standard Version, Oxford University Press)
History indicates that a great piece of land remains The Best investment long term. Capitalism builds wealth, socialism consumes it in self-destruction. I serve an awesome God. Pray for the Patriots, the establishment of honest elections in the USA and globally.
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