Important Economic Trends During Anarchy – Week 23

2020 – Something Big is Afoot.  Are You Prepared?

Living on Bubbles:

Every teenager has an experience with unrequited love.  You meet a member of the opposite sex who you think is perfect, the absolute Love of your life.  Unfortunately, their feelings for you are less intense or non- existent.  Either is a crushing experience.  It is an asymmetrical relationship.

In the business world, asymmetric information in a business deal usually can be very beneficial to one party but at the expense of the other party.  Insider trading in the stock market is illegal because of the asymmetry of information.  While not all situations with asymmetry in information are illegal, they are all VERY dangerous.

Our Democratic Republic requires BOTH an informed citizenry and honest elections.  Without both, our system fails.  The lack of an unbiased media makes it impossible to know what is fact versus fiction because it creates an asymmetric relationship and it does impact the economy.

Here is a summary of what I know:

  1. The documents declassified last fall demonstrated that Obama, Biden, Comey, Brennan, Clapper, Lynch, and Powers all met in July of 2016 to discuss the fact that Clinton’s campaign was going to use a Russian Collusion Hoax directed at Trump to take heat off of her computer server/email scandal.
  2. The same group (Loretta Lynch had left, replaced by Sally Yates as Acting AG whose notes of the meeting were released) met again in December 2016 after Trump won, to plot how to use the same hoax to undermine the incoming Trump administration. According to Yates’s notes it was Joe Biden that suggested using the Logan Act to attack General Mike Flynn.  An asymmetry of information, was that Sedition?
  3. Thereafter the Democrats demanded the Department of Justice appoint Robert Mueller as Special Counsel to investigate Trump for Russian Collusion KNOWING IT WAS A HOAX, and destroyed an innocent man, General Flynn, KNOWING IT WAS A HOAX. They wasted $30 Million of taxpayers’ money KNOWING IT WAS A HOAX.
  4. The largest American media companies perpetuated the HOAX for almost three years.
  5. How much do you trust the Democrats or the largest media? Should you?
  6. Because the major media are blatant in their bias, many Americans are ill informed about the recent election and various facets of what is occurring. Here is a test:
    1. Did you see the video of the Voter Registrar in Coffey County, Georgia that demonstrated the Dominion Voting System was prone to fraud?
    2. Are you aware that Georgia and Michigan officials tried to prevent the Dominion Voting machines from being audited? Why, if everything is honest?
    3. Did you see the video of the four ballot counters in Atlanta that stayed after the center was “closed”, pulled suitcases from under the table, retrieved ballots, and repeatedly scanned the same stack of ballots through the Dominion machines for three hours?
    4. Are you aware of the report that an audit of Antrim County Michigan Dominion Voting machines showed they were programmed for an illegally high rejection rate requiring a third party to decide the vote?
    5. Did you see the presentation of the retired cyber warfare Colonel who monitored the election and testified that the Dominion machines were being manipulated by foreign servers plus he had intercepted the packets of instructions from the servers to the Dominion voting machines?

I could go on but suffice it to say I am watching two absolutely opposing streams of data.  While I am not knowledgeable enough to predict which data stream will prevail, I am knowledgeable enough to know this is an extremely dangerous situation, the most serious asymmetry of information I have ever witnessed.  We are not discussing keeper marbles or a teenage crush.  We are talking about a clash between starkly different opposing visions about the USA.  All I want is honest elections and unbiased media!

Asymmetries of information always end badly for someone.  As I shared last week, Biden’s nominees for his cabinet believe China is the Hegemon and want to profit from the transition to the New World Order (NOW) espoused by Obama, Kerry, Biden, et al.  Based on the Burisma Report of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, continuing the trend of selling the remaining parts of the USA to China per the NWO, the USA will become like Venezuela, a vassal of China.

Just this week, one reader called me to share their child’s experience of being warned by their superb boss to leave a State Department job in DC because he chuckled at a presentation of the Critical Race Theory which says all White folks are bad.  He resigned; the USA lost.  One data point only marks a trend when it conforms with multiple other data points.  This is a trend.

As Hegemon, the values of the world would reflect those of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) such as busing the leaders of the Hong Kong freedom fighters to Re-Education Camps where they will join millions of Chinese Muslims being” re-educated” until their organs are harvested for sale.  Did you see the heart-rending videos of the student leaders of the Hong Kong freedom demonstrations when they were put on prison buses to be sent to those Re-Education camps?  My response, “Live Free or Die.”  All I want is honest elections and unbiased media!

The USA economy is a massive bubble – stocks, bonds, and real estate.  The only positive way forward is rapid economic growth to increase the GDP and thereby increase the tax receipts to service the national debt without raising the tax rates.  Increased tax rates and government regulations plus continued massive increases in our national debt on unproductive government spending is a prescription for economic disaster.  The Biden/Harris platform includes everything that would create a total disaster.  Therefore, the risk levels in our economy are increasing.

The economic reality is that the worst-case scenario – all the bubbles burst at once is highly likely.  The Fed is already doing 50% more QE than they did in The Great Recession and interest rates are already too low.  That means there is no calvary to send to rescue the pilgrims.

In business conversations I am hearing fear on the part of some sellers and caution on the part of some buyers.  Those are also reflected in the movement of global capital which always seeks the best combination of financial return and safety.  Currently global capital is leaving the USA resulting in the yield of the 10-year Treasury approaching 1%.  This is especially worrisome since The Fed maxed out.  The U. S. Dollar continues to fall against most currencies.  When global currency traders figure out that the Chinese Yuan is Fool’s Gold, that will be another crisis but currently China is benefiting from capital fleeing the USA.

We continue to share with our clients the following scenario for a Biden – Harris Administration:

  1. Until June 2021, the USA economy is already baked – challenges in the spring but good.
  2. However, nine to twelve months after the passage of the first Biden platform item is a Recession. Assuming Biden Harris begin passing their agenda in the second quarter of 2021, the recession will hit the second quarter of 2022.
  3. The more items on the Biden- Harris platform that become law, the worse that recession:
  4. Since the Fed is tapped out, the greatest probability is the Recession will be SEVERE. You need to think about a Depression that will last years.

The increase in the 10-year Treasuries interest rate means whoever was holding 10-year Treasuries has lost a lot of money. Those losses will ripple through the USA economy.  When either The Fed or capital flight out of the USA results in even higher interest rates, the pain will increase in the real estate, stock, and bond markets.  Pop! Some are going to get hurt, bad.

Commercial land is in flux and industrial land is softer because under Biden there will be little re-shoring of our industries back to the USA as folks like Hunter Biden profit from selling our remaining industries to China. The amount of cash sitting on the sidelines is at a record $5.9 Trillion because in an insured bank account the principle is preserved on a sort term basis.  I refer to it as a “Reflection of Fear.”  Increased fear is bad for economic growth.

History indicates that a great piece of land remains The Best investment long term.

“Anyone then, who knows the right thing to do and fails to do it, commits sin.”

(James 4:17   New Revised Standard Version, Oxford University Press)

Capitalism builds wealth, socialism consumes it in self destruction.  I serve an awesome God.  Pray for the Patriots, the establishment of honest elections in the USA and globally.

Stay healthy,

Ned

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