Important Economic Trends During Anarchy – Week 18

2020 – Something Big is Afoot.  Are You Prepared?

A Critical Decision:

Economically, the USA is in a position it has never faced before, massive national debt in the middle of a Hegemonic struggle.  At the end of World War II our country had massive national debt similar in magnitude to what we face today.  The combination of rapid economic growth with inflation (devaluation of the Dollar) over a period of 15 years was the medicine that solved that situation.

Unlike today, in the Post World War II period the USA was the economic engine of the world since most of the productive capacity of the rest of the world had been destroyed in the war.  Recognizing that fact and being the Hegemon, wise political leaders in the USA created the Marshall Plan to rebuild the rest of the world and we provided the military force to police the world.  The result was Pax Americana.

Today, China is a mercantile state which believes its destiny is to be the Hegemon.  For almost 50 years the five families that control China have operated as the equivalent of China Inc.  Initially they used cheap labor as the means of building an industrial base followed by building production capacity equal to the world economy total demand by offering prices for finished goods below the cost of producers in capitalistic societies. This drove much of their global competition out of business.

The Chinese built technological capacity and refined it by hacking global competitors.  The fruits of their labors are illustrated by the fact their newest jets look identical to ours, their newest naval ships are also exact replicas to the point of having painted signs in English over an arrow pointing to the “Head”.  Not in Chinese but in English.

But they also invested heavily in buying influence.  First to get American politicians to admit China into the World Trade Organization, a key to access global capital.  Large endowments to USA universities, cultural centers, and business ventures with families of our politicians and bureaucrats.  Post-World War II the USA was a Christian country where right versus wrong was measured by the standard of the Ten Commandments.  But today the USA is mostly pagan/heathen so the definition of right versus wrong is the Secular Morality definition– “Right is what benefits me the most today”.

In contemporary America, those that live in the Secular Morality manner are considered the “Elites” with the non-practitioners referred to initially by Obama as those living clutching their Bibles and guns, then by Hillary Clinton as “Deplorables”, and finally by Biden as “Chumps”.   Per the Elites, the Deplorable Chumps smell bad, focus on working to provide for their families, and clearly are too stupid to make their own decisions.  To the Secular Elites, it is the rare overachiever Deplorable Chump that succeeds in anything because they are burdened by those pesky, out of date, superstitions about right versus wrong per the Ten Commandments found in an out of date book called The Bible.

The Secular Elites are able to achieve wealth and power because they are unburdened by the Ten Commandments.  The Secular Elite “Never waste a crisis to build your political base” mantra reflects that they are not familiar with the Ten Commandments.

For example, the faux negotiations between Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Secretary Minuchin over a fourth stimulus bill.  Secretary Minuchin wanted a limited bill targeted to those individuals and companies hurt by the government shutdown.  Speaker Pelosi really preferred to damage Trump’s re-election campaign so her unnegotiable stand was for the American taxpayer to bail out all the Democratic controlled states and cities that are sinking into a deep fiscal abyss of their own making.  In effect, her position was “Who cares about those Deplorable Chumps and their little businesses?”

Meanwhile, China is facing a 10 maybe 15-year demographic window to become the Hegemon.  There is a point where their population will simply be “Too Old” because of their one child policy.  Hence President Xi’s strategy of releasing the Wuhan Virus on the world to damage every other economy anticipating it would take the USA four years to develop a vaccine and therapeutics.  He did not count on President Trump’s “Operation Warp Speed” getting the job done in one year.

Warfare by unconventional means is a Chinese trademark.  It would also be consistent for the Chinese to use the Wuhan Virus on top of “owning” USA politicians plus training/funding organizations like Movement for Black Lives (BLM).  That strategy is brilliant.

Harry Truman once said “It is easy to identify the corrupt politicians.  They are the ones that start their political careers poor and end up rich.”  His truthful statement gives us the acid test to judge our recent and current politicians.  In the Secular Morality of today, we must enlarge the list to add bureaucrats.  Some interesting names whose wealth after being in public office is estimated in the $100 Million range include Obama, Biden, Pelosi, with an even longer list of slightly less wealthy folks.  Everyone in the news with “odd decisions” is a realistic suspect.

The contents of the Hunter Biden laptop have been verified by some of the folks on those email strings.  Odd that the FBI has had the laptop for almost one year and did nothing with it.  Please see the paragraph immediately above.  While I am saddened by the degenerate and corrupt behavior displayed by the laptop information, the most dangerous fact is that Biden appears to be “owned” by the Chinese who are attacking the USA in their effort to become the Hegemon.

I am confident of two items:

  1. The list of corrupt politicians includes both Democrats and Republicans.
  2. The Chinese expect a return on their investment of buying influence.

With that background, let us return to the options the USA faces to get out of our current financial situation.  There are only two alternatives for the USA:

(1) Default on our debts, or

(2) Combine RAPID economic growth with inflation (devaluation of the Dollar).

Hegemons cannot default on their debts.  Hegemons do have a much easier time making the second alternative happen.  Losing the Hegemon role to China guarantees the alternative 1 listed above.  For many reasons, the USA does not want to go the route of alternative 1.

Therefore, the stakes associated with the election this week are high risk:

  1. If Biden is elected his proposed increases in taxes and regulations will result in an historic economic disaster plus the loss of our Hegemon status to the Chinese, digging our economic hole even deeper.  Ultimately, the USA will default on its debts in all forms – Treasuries and social programs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.). 
  2. If Trump is re-elected, the USA has a shot at combining rapid economic growth and inflation to work our way out of the current financial hole.

Rest assured the Protestors, Rioters, and Vandals (PRVs) will be out in force either way the election goes.  With Biden, they will be agitating to bring into power Socialism/Marxism as a return on the Chinese investment in influence buying.  If Trump is elected, the PRVs will be in the street protesting because the corrupt “Elites” are afraid of being disclosed and the Chinese are mad at not receiving a return on their investment.

Last week we saw intelligent investors on Wall Street are already trying to hedge their investments.  There is a huge amount of cash sitting on the sidelines.  The reason is simple, stocks and bonds are fully priced.  Cash does not bring any return but short term your principle is preserved.

We are sharing with clients that we are living in an economic “Bubble” created by the historic stimulus already coursing its way through our economy.  Per our data bases, in central Virginia the land market is active but price sensitive.  The residential land market is red hot because The Fed is forcing mortgage rates below 3%.  A great piece of land remains The Best Investment.

The Best Advice:

“Therefore, take up the whole armor of God, so that you may be able to withstand on that evil day, and having done everything, to stand firm.”

(Ephesians 6:13   New Revised Standard Version, Oxford University Press)

Capitalism builds wealth, socialism consumes it in self destruction.  I serve an awesome God.  With God on our side, who can stand against us.  Pray.  Hard.

Stay healthy,

Ned

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